Exclusive Interview with Resilience360 CEO Sheds Light on Climate Change and Supply Chain Disruption

As noted in our news section, Resilience360 offers short- and long-term recommendations for mitigating storms' impact on supply chains.

In this exclusive interview with Tobias Larsson, CEO, Resilience360, we learn how the report offers overview of at-risk industry clusters and common storm trajectories in the Americas, East Asia and the North Indian Ocean

Supply Chain Management Review: Do you have any new advice for supply chain managers based on past reports? In other words, did you gain new insights from past research?

Tobias Larsson: The report highlights several new insights based on data analysis of the past twenty or more years. First, supply chains relying on locations in Florida, southeastern China and southwestern Japan are most vulnerable to landfall-making tropical storms and should receive most attention when it comes to risk mitigation. Second, locations in other areas with less frequent impact from such storms should also have business continuity plans in place as only one major storm can have devastating impact. Recent examples include Hurricane Harvey in Texas and Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico. Maria was the first Category 5 hurricane to hit Puerto Rico since 1928, causing drug shortages in the United States.

SCMR: How is this report different?

Larsson: This report aims to be more comprehensive by looking at the risk of tropical storms in the entire Northern Hemisphere. First, it includes available forecasts for the 2019 season. Second, it analyzes common storm paths and common areas of landfalls of the past 20 years in the Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the North Indian Ocean. And last but not least, it uses Resilience360's database of suppliers to gain insights on industries which are particularly vulnerable to tropical storms. For example, Florida's clusters of engineering suppliers in coastal areas in the northwest, west and southeast are located within three out of four of the most common storm trajectories.

SCMR: Is there new evidence suggesting climate change?

Larsson: A recent study published in November 2018 in the journal Nature found that climate change worsened the most destructive hurricanes in the past years, such as Hurricane Harvey by intensifying rainfalls between 5 and 10 percent. This is reportedly due to the warming of the ocean and the atmosphere, while wind speeds remained largely unchanged.

SCMR: Do you expect a greater demand for humanitarian aid in response to these disasters?

Larsson: This report analyzed vulnerable areas in the Northern Hemisphere and found that some of the most exposed areas to storms with fragile infrastructure include some of the Caribbean islands. When Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in 2017, it caused a nationwide power outage that took more than 10 months to be repaired. The US then allocated billions of dollars to rebuild housing, infrastructure and energy networks. Recently in the Southern Hemisphere, two powerful tropical storms devastated parts of Mozambique, also triggering humanitarian assistance programs. While storms in the Southern Indian Ocean usually threaten Madagascar, Mauritius, La Reunion, Comoros and Mozambique, the recent storms also caused destruction in Zimbabwe and Tanzania, which are largely unprepared for such impact.

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