Quarterly Air Cargo Market Update: Part I

Few surprises are contained in the most recent data released by The International Air Transport Association (IATA) in the year's final quarter, showing that global air freight markets gained momentum as 2016 comes to an end.

Demand, measured in freight tons, rose 3.9% year-on-year, while freight capacity increased by 4.1% over the same period. According to IATA researchers, industry conditions have improved since the particularly soft patch in the first quarter. Indeed, carriers in all regions except Latin America reported an increase in year-on-year demand in September.

However, regional results varied considerably. For the third time in four months airlines based in Europe posted the highest collective annual growth of all regions, while airlines in the Middle East experienced their slowest growth in more than seven years.

“September numbers showed improvements in cargo demand,” observes Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's Director General and CEO. “While this is good news, the underlying market conditions make it difficult to have long-term optimism.”

Juniac notes that world trade volumes fell by 1.1% in July with no improvement on the horizon. Furthermore, he says the current global political rhetoric in much of the world is more focused on protectionism than trade promotion.

“Economies need to grow out of the current economic doldrums,” he says. “Governments should be focused on promoting trade, not raising protectionist barriers.”

Regional variation
Asia-Pacific airlines reported a 2.8% increase in demand for air cargo in September compared to last year. Capacity in the region expanded 1.2%. International traffic within the region has been the strongest of the “big-four” markets (Asia Pacific, Europe, North America, and Middle East) so far this year, with traffic up by 6.5% year-on-year in July 2016.

North American carriers, meanwhile, saw freight volumes expand 5.5% in September 2016 year-on-year, and capacity increase by 3.7%. International freight volumes grew by 4.6% in September – the fastest pace since the US seaports disruption boosted demand earlier in 2015. However, seasonally adjusted activity has barely altered from 2008 levels. The strength of the US dollar continues to keep the US export market under pressure.

European airlines posted the largest increase in freight demand of all regions in September 2016 – 6.6% year-on-year. Capacity increased 4.7%. The positive European performance corresponds with an increase in reported new export orders in Germany over the last few months. European freight demand has now broken out of the corridor that it occupied between mid-2010 and the start of the year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw air freight demand slump to 1.8% year-on-year in September 2016 – the slowest pace since July 2009. Capacity increased by 6.9%. The strong upward trend seen in Middle Eastern traffic over the past year or so has halted. In seasonally-adjusted terms, volumes in July 2016 were slightly below those seen in January 2016.

“The weakening performance is partly attributable to slower growth between the Middle East and Asia,” explains de Juniac. “This suggests that Middle Eastern carriers are facing stiff competition from European airlines on the Europe-Asia route.”

There was marked contraction in Latin American markets where airlines lost money in annual terms for the sixth consecutive month. Freight tons in September 2016 fell by 3.3% compared to the same period last year and capacity decreased by 0.2%. The region continues to be blighted by weak economic and political conditions, particularly in the region's largest economy, Brazil.

African carriers saw demand rebound sharply in September to 3.7% - the fastest growth rate in 12 months. Despite this, freight capacity continues to outstrip demand, due to rapid long-haul expansion. Capacity surged in September year-on-year by 29.2%. The combination of rising capacity and modest growth has significantly affected the load factor of African airlines. In September 2016 it was almost six percentage points lower than a year ago and is around half the industry average.

Next: From ocean to air

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