Talking Supply Chain: Assessing the freight market

Trucking companies and shippers alike are wondering which direction the freight market is heading as we wind down 2024 and look toward 2025. Is it at the bottom, or about to boom? Are rates heading up? Is capacity tightening?

AFS Logistics CEO Andy Dyer joined the Talking Supply Chain podcast to look at the current market conditions and give some perspective on what shippers and carriers might expect in the months to come.

“I, unfortunately, am not going to be a source of optimism for the [carrier] segment of the audience here, and that’s not because of anything other than the facts in front of us,” he said. “You know what’s going to drive it. Everyone wants some sort of demand, side spark or catalyst, but there’s absolutely no evidence of any kind that that is on the horizon. So what this means is … it’s really going to be a supply-side correction. We’ve started to see exits already over the past year, maybe 15 months—I wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s accelerating yet, meaning the exiting of capacity—but I honestly believe in the short term it’s going to have to be a supply-side correction.”

Dyer added that the market will likely bounce along the bottom until that supply-side correction occurs baring some unexpected outside force.

The latest TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index indicated that the truckload rate per mile continues to remain low, with the Q3 number for linehaul cost per shipment in its seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year decline. The index, though, is showing some hints that it has reached a floor—about 12% to 14% above pre-pandemic levels.

Dyer broke down the truckload market, and also dived into the current conditions and rate outlook for the parcel and less-than-truckload markets.

Listen today.

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